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WallstreetBets Saved My Life

Do you understand that you are the ringleaders in some sort of psychotic financial underground fight club ?
This year has been outrageous and retarded at the same time and somehow. Because all of us morons got together on here - we made money during something awful.
During The worst thing we’ve ever imagined.
Have you seen the movie, Contagion?? Dude that’s a walk in the park compared to the real world right now. It’s expected to report as a ThrilleHorror. - but missed my estimates for a weak drama.
This post represents how god damn retarded we all are- and at the same time, it shows us how fucking beautiful we all are.
Wallstreetbets, was all we had this year.
and WE FUCKING CRUSHED IT.
How many stocks were we right about? That Jim Cramer told us not to Buy. But because the memes were so Funny. We bought low and got to sell waaaay high
Electric vehicles anyone?
Yea then when the stocks we keep defending sky rocket to the moon and we use the power of the autist army DD - months later Cramer tells us he likes wallstreetbets.
Yea you do jimmy
So do I . Hahahahahaha
Life is a video game
I made enough money trading on my cell phone to pay for my entire education - not need a job while I put myself thru school YOLO’ing way too much money into meme stocks for shits and giggles and waking up to 100%+ returns ON MY ENTIRE SAVINGS MULTIPLE WEEKS IN A ROW.
And I’m not alone
I hope everyone here gets to experience the power of holding a stock when Jim Cramer tells you it’s not any good. Then it goes up 1000%+.
If you thought you ever doubted anything you read, imagine making 690% returns on $XPEV in October when JiMMy BoY Told us that NoThiNG cOULd EvEr Do WhAt niO DiD AgAin.
SIT DOWN : XPEV NIO TSLA TWTR SNAP PINS And ; FB was $30 too - 10 years ago . Social media digital marketing explosion in your face.
I feel like the Incredible Hulk right now.
  1. The biggest fucking train wreck disaster we’ve ever seen. But us retards pulled thru it. Some of us changed our fucking lives forever.
Like me.
Because of this stupid forum and all of you idiots- my life has been changed forever
I fucking love you guys so much
Thru all of this bullshit I racked up over $40k profits this year.
How the fuck does that happen I only had $8k to my name. What the f.. Idk what I’m doing. and now, PETER SCHIFF FOLLOWS ME ON INSTAGRAM.
right place at the right time. Here’s my story:
I found you idiots at the beginning of this pandemic.
Feb 2020 I was, Depressed, Scared, Bored Angry Everything. I had Lost my job. I was deemed non-essential.
I couldn’t get unemployment but got $1200 in mail. That helps for sure. Like think about this ok:
$8k + $1200 = ?% ... you know ? He added more than 10% to my net worth. Right? Legit increase. So thank you for that bro. Talk shit on it all ya want but that’s a legit percent increase from D, lol.
That allowed me to over leverage way more than I was used to.
I stumble onto this Shitshow of a Reddit called wallstreetbets. where everyone is insulting each other. And it’s hilarious.
In March, of 2020: I start trading options and really ramping up my risk. I’m in and out of $AAPL calls every 2-3 days making $300-700 per week trading which is fucking awesome for me. Sometimes over a thousand bucks a week
For 20 weeks roughly. Simple math and smart trading.
Sort of. I think
It’s a version of Buffett’s compounding interest. Make $1k per week for 25 weeks =
Make $25k
Simple. Easy
Now I’m smarts as Waeren BuFét .
I don’t have any way to make money buttttt now I’m deemed not essential as a medical device salesman.
Trading is paying my bills. My friends are interested.
I keep throwing in 100%+ of my account into trades. So stupid.
And by May, 2020 = It KEEPS WORKING. And we are all encouraging each other like maniacs on here lol.
By June = I’m up $20,000 on the year.
And guys I don’t care what you say. I know it is a small profit, compared to some of the madness on here but... To me. It’s a lot of money.
Percentage-wise I’m up wayyyyy beyond normal
A whole lot of money and - I have no clue any other way to make money.
I made $18k total money, in 2019. And lost a little money in the stock market.
and then 2020 pandemic was the nail in my sales business’ coffin.
And I’m poor as Dick when the pandemic hit. My savings, I had about $8k left. . I’ve never had too much money but I work hard.
And at this point all I can think is that I know I cannot give up
And trust me I wanted to give up. In February and March I thought I’d become one of these suicides because I became so depressed about the virus and my wife was becoming sick. She was diagnosed with lupus and man I didn’t know how hard life could be. I would never leave her side so I push forward for us. Let’s do this
Time to fight the boss.
I had never been tested like this with so much hardships.
You know you hear stories about people who have very bad struggles, and never think you’ll be like that, because you work hard, but sometimes - a pandemic crushes your income to $00.00 The gov won’t pay you anything and your wife is deemed terminally ill. And then all of her hair falls out
But despite all of this, By May of 2020: I’d already made my 2019 salary in few months. I don’t fully understand what is happening but I keep reading. I Keep studying at nights. Understanding stocks further. I Keep reading WSB. It is working. I’m able to pay my bills and rent and eat And put gas in my car And get coffee in the morning. Something I’d never had spare cash to do really, multiple months in a row now from trading- I’m able to live better than ever.
But I’m up all night studying I’m chomping adderall to push thru the shit because in my mind I couldn’t go to bed yet I need to learn I need to take this opportunity.
I’d think to myself, “This is never going to happen again,” So I’d rationalize staying up till 4:30am to catch pre-market opening bell and buy 1000 shares pre-market and then exit them at 9am. Trade options till 3pm then crash hard because it’s earnings day and you can’t miss this Shit. legitimate degeneracy.
I’m not starving because I’m a trader?
“Ok push forward,” I tell myself. “You can do this.”
STAYING MOTIVATED THRU THE DARKNESS. my gains were steady until the end of the summer when my portfolio Doubled bc of Instagram .
I thought I had made all the money in the world. Over 100% gains. Little did I know i was about to 100% the 100%
The most incredible thing happened,
Randomly, one day I smoke a fat fat joint and put in like 2 hours making a meme video for you tardos because I’m so high... I’ve never done it before. My first meme video is born
When I post the video on my Instagram, I tag Peter Schiff , Peter Schiff’s wife shouts me out - and Peter shouts me out.
And I’m eating dinner with my wife. And I see that notification.
“Peter Schiff has followed you”
I look at my girl like waaaaaait a second. Read that to me......... Then my phone... I’ve never seen it come to life Like this. HAS ANYONE EXPERIENCE THIS BEFORE? Peter and his wife shout me out on Instagram, and the wave of followers that came to my page was UNREAL.
Turns out - Peter and his wife are legit 2 of the coolest people on planet earth.
And they are both part of my 23 followers.
Lol Whaaaaaaaaaat.
He was on Joe Rogan guys. What.
(I have had this account for years and am posting constantly on it with ZERO interaction. Maybe 1-3 like per post. Posting 10x per week. Why tf do I need a personal Instagram? - let’s talk stocks b).
“Whaaaaaat is happening!?!?”
I decide to go big. If fuckin Schiff is into what I’m saying. LETS FUCKIN GO.
I walk into the wallstreet casino (market open) In early July 2020 -
I put everything on fuckn $SLV boyz.
I had about 40 contracts and over 500 shares
(Once again, I know this position sounds small, but understand me- This is all the money I have. So it was a true god damn yolo in the Purest of its many forms. I’m so mother fuckin proud of this trade. It changed my life forever).
By the end of July I’ve almost doubled my money. By late Aug early September 2020 You saw what happened to silver.
Rockets to the moon then crashes back to earth
I had made the perfect trade
I bought a pair of silver AirMax 97’s the day I sold my position. To celebrate bc it was so unreal to me to make that kind of money so fast.
I was up up +$40k on the year. $SLV was at $28.50 the day I decided to sell
I Bounce. I sell it all. Instead of diamond hands. I spin a total 180 on my silver theories about it going to $50/oz and I sell everything and take all of my profits. I got a bad feeling. I started reading about JP Morgan. And then the ultimate red flag
The slimy reptiles on tv began saying silver is good.
Annnnnd I was like NOPE CANT LISTEN TO LIZARDS EVER EVEN IF THEY AGREE WITH YOU
and I exited the entire position HAHAHAHA while people told me if I hold till December Ill make $150k. OKAY how’s that working out ?
Because silver can’t fail - and it’s definitely going to $50/oz; by December. Because the COMEX. Bla bla bla. Manipulation move on. Only hold physical. Period.
Anyway
I don’t care what they say. This profit I made. is WAY MORE MONEY than I’m used to.
$40k total profit and the year isn’t over - I take it
I sell all my $SLV positions.
In the following days after I sell- $SLV absolutely collapses from $29 to $22
Are. You. Kidding. Me.
I can’t believe it. I did the yolo. Again It worked. And I fucking sold at the right time.
I decide that’s enough. I’m gonna use this to pay for an education to work in surgical technology. I apply and I’m number 6 on the waiting list to get into class. But they say that it’s possible. So I wait. ... maybe I can really pull off the greatest thing I’ve ever done and get my shit back together.
Dr. Jordan Peterson taught us to choose the best thing we can think of- how we can help People. Also, choose a job that is one you can be good at.
Then shoot for that. That’s the goal. Thanks doc
I get a call on oct 17th from the school.
Oct 17. Is Eminem’s birthday.
I started school 2 days later.
I know some will make fun of this career, but... it’s essential. Pay is awesome for me. I like to work with my hands. this is an excellent, “trade-based,” Job for me- Because I will be good at it and make money.
Pandemic made me change my attitude towards work. No man is above a job and if you have a trade you can work with your hands - then you will always have income. As long as you have hands.
And if you have income, you can trade like a retard forever.
If you can trade, you can make $40k on your cell phone without a job in a pandemic.
Stand up, and scream at the top of your lungs if you feel me on this.
Is anyone even reading this shit anymore?
Seriously. If you understand what I’m saying, aka-
If you were fucking BROKE and you made more money, in 2020 somehow, than you ever have in your life-
You are a fucking legend. And so am I.
WE WERE BUILT FOR THIS SHIT.
So, I drop $25k for school. I swap $15k of my profits into physical silver bc of taxes are good. I swap the physical silver for cash, to eat when I’m hungry and live on when I need to now.
And my physical silver I got at $25/oz is worth over $30/oz today. . And I still have my original $8k in investments , which I’ve (to date) turned into about +$18,500 literally, by just trading whatever is trending on an app called Stocktwits.
Then searching WallStreet bets for The ticker and see if You retards are talking about it yet or not.
Huge W
I finish school on 09.09.2021 I will have a job that day and income
All of this happened because of WallStreetBets.
Things were so dark. So bad. No future. No prospects at all in business but bros...
I was fucking trading. Like a complete fucking idiot
And making money. And I still can’t believe it. I cannot believe this happened.
PULLED UP TO THE PARTY IN A PINTO LIKE IT WAS A PORSCHE
and I can’t believe I made all this money following this sTupid ass Reddit website and 100% autistic, over-leveraged, retarded meme trading the entire year.
Huge Respect to WSB. This place was the light at the end of a dark tunnel.
Seriously. Thank you so much. All of you.
You saved my life.
What a fuckin trip. We are immortalized. We made history in 2020.
Merry Christmas Retards
~edit • • • • •
• • • •
My wife is much better (her hair grew back) and I’m having a baby boy this March.
I’ll be working as an essential surgical technologist by the fall of 2021.
I’m an idiot and a pussy I only will put $100 at risk in any trade - and I don’t can’t what anyone says about that. because my life is forever changed for the better, because of this forum
Now ...
The shitshow is not over.
2020 was a springboard for some shiiiiit 2021 we are coming into a commodity boom I think.
Get ready for 100x more Madness
TL:DR - $IPOC 19 FEB 2021 $15C
submitted by stocktawk to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

10 golden tips for WSB Newbies

Reading through some of the posts I can see how a lot of newbies have FOMO (fear of missing out). Post after post of losers making huge returns. Everyone is getting rich but you. Boofuckinghoo. The smart investor realizes it’s all hype. Some of it works, most of it doesn’t. To be successful you need to be able to recognize the difference and to do that, you need time, knowledge and practice.
Here are ten tips that can help you along the way.
Tip 1 - You don’t know shit
You’re going to lose your money. Don’t get suckered by reading posts about guys who made 1000% return in 5 minutes. For every one guy that posts his massive gains, 100+ suckers have lost their money. The first lesson to realize is that it’s way easier to lose money in the market than to make money.
Tip 2 - Understand how money flows in the market
Money moves from the idiots to the knowledgable, from the impatient to the patient. Any dummy can make money short term. But to make money long-term and truly grow a portfolio, you have to be armed with knowledge and a shit ton of patience.
Tip 3 - Play for the long term
The most important rule you need to follow religiously is NEVER FUCKING LOSE MONEY. Print it big, tape it to your wall. Your top responsibility is protecting your capital. YOLO is a stupid play. 99% of you are going to bet at the wrong time with the wrong stock. Calm the fuck down and work on a long term strategy. You have decades dummy.
Tip 4 - Time is on your side, but not much else
The market never stops. The machine just churns and churns. Rich to poor, poor to rich, it just keeps on turning and turning. There are ALWAYS opportunities. Another IPO. Another MEME turd. FOMO is for fools. Miss a run? Big fucking deal. There’s another one around the corner. You have plenty of time to learn, test, and grow your capital.
Tip 5 - Paper Trading
Paper trading is a simulation. It behaves exactly like a real account with real active data but it’s all practice. No real money exchanges. It’s a great way to learn, to see how shitty you’re going to do without losing a penny. DO THIS FOR TWO YEARS. Take whatever capital you have right now and buy some long term ETFs or solid ass stocks with minimal risk. Keep adding to it EVERY paycheck. Build up some capital for when you’re ready to trade for real. Take two years to learn how to trade, watch your paper portfolio go to zero a couple dozen times, read and follow the news, WSB, Stocktwits, etc. Ask questions, test out your strategies. You’ll thank me two years from now.
Tip 6 - Understand taxes
Big difference between short term and long term capital gains. Uncle Sam loves you short timers. Paying taxes is for suckers.
Tip 7 - No one knows shit
There is no crystal ball, no one has the “inside track”, and only believe 10% of what you read. Be very fucking skeptical. About everything. Social media, analysts, CEOs, news, all if it, be fucking skeptical. It’s all manipulation. Don’t even trust Buffett. You are the guardian of your capital. Everyone wants to take it it away from you. Understand that and you won’t get suckered so easily.
Tip 8 - Learn to read fundamentals and understand valuations
As much as the market today feels like a casino, the underlying foundation of the market is investing, not gambling. With every stock you buy you’re buying a piece of a business. Learn to read fundamentals. Do they make money? Are they growing? Do they have debt? How are their competitors valued? Do they make more money today than they did 5 years ago? How will they make more? How do they return capital to shareholders? And on and on and on. Learn motherfuckers. Earnings per share. P/E rations. Intrinsic value. Net income. Figure out formulas for valuing stocks. Is TSLA worth over 250x earnings? Is WFC undervalued at 13x earnings? Investing blindly because big_dick_loser said so in a post is beyond idiotic. Just burn your money, you’ll have more fun.
Tip 9 - Get rich schemes are for suckers
Remove the bookmark for Ferrari. You ain’t getting one anytime soon. Play fucking smart. Go long. Think in decades, not days. You’re not smart enough to day trade and beat the system. Not long-term anyways. Most of you won’t beat the market over 10 years. So be fucking smart. Paper trade until you can consistently prove gains month after month. When you’re ready to trade for real, dip in slowly. Fuck FOMO. Fuck YOLO. Remember, time is on your side. Compound that shit.
Tip 10 - Discipline and dedication
Like anything in life, to be successful you have to fucking work at it. Easy money never lasts. Dig in, learn, practice, rinse and repeat. Be motivated to learn how to invest, take the time to study, read, test and constantly improve. Be disciplined with your money. It’s fucking hard to make, easy to lose. Protect that shit.
--
For those of you this resonates with, you’ll be fine long term. Do the fucking work. For those of you who love chasing the fantasy, good luck, I mean it. It’s a tough fucking pill to swallow watching your account get dwindled down to zero. Nothing tastes worse that losing all your money.
Peace.
submitted by Whocares2020 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

The Hound of Hounslow (How an Autist Broke the Market)

On May 6, 2010, Jim Cramer’s brain broke. “That is not a real price,” he yelled to his monitor. “OK? That is not a real price.” Proctor & Gamble had just fallen 25% in a manner of minutes, then 29%, then 31%. Cramer had never seen such a shiny knife, such a beautiful buy, and he searched frantically for the right camera to beg his followers to add PG to their portfolio.
There weren’t enough buttons on Cramer’s soundboard to fully capture how he felt about the quickest drop in Dow Jones history. In what would later be dubbed “The Crash of 2:45” or simply “The Flash Crash,” over a trillion dollars was wiped from the stock market in a manner of 15 minutes. The odd thing was, despite dropping more than 9% at one point, the market would rapidly recover a bit after 3 PM and would close only 3% lower for the day.
In the ensuing days and weeks, journalists and financial commentators and United States Congressmen would try and determine where this volatility had come from. Something weird had just happened.
#
In the investigations that followed, regulators would consider a couple of theories. Was this a “fat-finger trade” where a trader inadvertently placed a large sell order, triggering a domino effect of sorts where algos would in turn sell? Was this a well-coordinated cyberattack, aimed to cripple American institutions? Was it simply a dip exacerbated by high-frequency traders? Had Janet Yellen forgotten to change the printer toner?
Nobody knew. But five months after the flash crash, the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released a joint report that on May 6, 2010 the market was “so fragmented and fragile that a single large trade could send stocks into a sudden spiral.” They stated that a group called Waddell & Reed Financial Inc. had inadvertently played a role in the crash by initiating a sale of 75,000 E-Mini S&P contracts ($4.1 billion total) as a hedge to an existing position. This, the report said, coupled with the high-frequency traders trying to sell the long futures contracts they had just picked up from Waddell & Reed, led to a game of “hot potato” where the contracts were resold to other HFTs.
The report though was leaving out a crucial player.
#
In 2005, Navinder Sarao was living the dream. At 27 years old, he still lived with his parents in Hounslow, a working-class suburb outside of London, demanding tendies to be delivered to his bedroom by his sweet emigrant mother. To the people who knew him, Navinder, or Nav, was known to be quick-witted and quick to anger. He was dominant at Halo and FIFA, and he had a proclivity to focus on one task for hours and hours on end until he mastered it. He was almost obsessive in his interests.
Despite still living with his parents, young Nav had aspirations. In 2006, he responded to an ad in the Evening Standard that read, “Wanted: futures traders. Must work well under pressure.” That’s it. That was the ad. And Nav, with no experience and a honey mustard-stained tie, went to the FutexLive headquarters—a drab office situated above a supermarket 45 minutes outside London—and successfully hid his Asperger’s and got the job. He was now a professional trader.
Nav picked things up quickly. Realizing that he was surrounded by day-trading retards, he moved his desk to the corner of the shabby trading floor and bought a pair of noise-canceling headphones. He’d found success trading E-mini S&P Futures, which is the primary futures trading vehicle for the S&P 500. And with his noise-canceling headphones, Nav would follow the orders that would enter and leave the markets. His coworkers would marvel at the autist in the corner and the returns he was regularly pulling in.
Then 2008 happened. By the time the financial crisis was in full swing, Nav was almost thirty and had decided to leave Futex. He had accumulated $2 million from his trades the last couple of years, and he figured the most prudent move as a budding millionaire was to set up his command center in his bedroom. He still lived with his parents.
#
Nav realized something early on in the mortgage crisis that not everyone else did. He realized that governments would be forced to step in and save these retarded institutions, and he knew the banks wouldn’t be allowed to fall. And he bet $2 million—his whole net worth at the time—that he would be right. He made this bet on a Friday, and the following Monday, George Bush announced the TARP plan.
Prices proceeded to recover 19% over the next couple of weeks, and Nav rode the wave and turned his $2 million into $15 million. Did he rest on his laurels? Fuck no, this kid’s retarded! Nav didn’t want a wife and a home with a couple of kids running around. He wanted GLORY.
#
Around 2010, the markets were seeing an influx in high-frequency trading, and Nav took personal insult to these robots. People were getting scalped by these algos, and those scalps belonged to Nav. Those profits were rightfully his.
In order to beat the robots, Nav decided to build his own robot. And unsurprisingly, fueled by Code Red and autism, Nav’s algo worked magnificently. Pretty soon, he was regularly pulling in half a million a day. All the while living in a cramped bedroom of his parents’ home that cost $300,000.
#
May 6, 2010, started out as a regular day for Nav. The markets were sliding a bit, and Jim Cramer was flailing about his studio as though he were fighting a cloud of bats, but this was roughly on par for the time. Nav’s algo was pumping E-mini sell orders into the market—$200 million worth of orders to be exact—which ultimately resulted in a loss of liquidity (don’t ask me how this worked, I’m still confused why my PLTR 12/11 40C aren’t printing). At around 1:40 EST, or 6:40 in Hounslow, his mother called from the bottom of the steps to inform Nav that din-din was ready and would he please come down.
So Nav logged off.
And exactly one minute after that, the market began to fall at a rate that had never seen before. Nav had no idea though; he was in an argument with his father about why he needed to chew with his mouth open in order to let the scalding tendy fumes out. A trillion dollars had been wiped from American markets, and the instigator of it all was too retarded to know what he’d done.
The tendies were good though.
#
The trillion-dollar loss turned out to be not that big of a deal. The DOW snapped back from the 9% freefall like a rubber band, like any stock that Andrew Left has deemed to be a casino. But the NYSE and NASDAQ officials proceeded to meet over the next couple of months to try and determine what caused the nosedive and rapid recovery. In the reports that they would write, regulators made no reference to manipulation and no reference to Nav. In fact, he wasn’t even aware there was an investigation going on. He wasn’t aware he did anything wrong.
But regulators eventually began to notice that Nav was canceling a lot of orders. The CFTC sent him an email and asked if he could explain what he’d been up to. What was the reason for his canceling an obscene number of orders? That’s what big banks did. And that’d usually be fine and all, but Nav was a singular trader and that made it suspicious.
Nav wrote back to the CFTC explaining in careful terms that he had nothing to apologize for and that the CFTC could kiss his ass. He actually sent that. He told the CFTC to kiss his ass. Which, in hindsight, might’ve been a bad idea but the regulators were still too stupid and boomery to charge him with anything at the time. Nav would’ve gotten away with it too if it weren’t for a blabbermouth desk trader in Chicago who months later reported a different block of Nav’s trades to the CFTC, rekindling the case against Nav.
The investigation and case were dragged out over months and years, and I know 99% of you were too impatient to get this far, so I’ll give the cliff notes for the rest. Basically, Nav would eventually be charged with “spoofing,” which is the purchase of a large block of orders with the intent to cancel them. Spoofing artificially drives prices higher or lower. So the FBI and other concerned parties showed up on the doorstep of Nav’s Hounslow townhome in 2015, and he was extradited to the U.S. The judge learned he was worth $50 million, so he set bail to $7.5 million. Curiously enough though, Nav couldn’t access the $50 million or pay bail, and it was later determined that he’d somehow lost the fortune, seemingly to various shady investment advisors who promised to keep his money safe. (I personally like to think he’s stashed his earnings into a Caribbean account and that he’ll return to his private island once things blow over)
Over the next couple of months, Nav worked with investigators and taught them how market abuse happens. He was diagnosed with Asperger’s by a prison doctor, and the judge, sensing the moral dilemma of incarcerating an autist, and sensing Nav had received punishment enough from being scammed out of his $50 million, recommended a year of house arrest.
So Nav is currently serving his year of house arrest in the same bedroom where he amassed $50 million. But now he’s penniless at 41.
TLDR: Some autist beats the system, but the casino is angry and creates new rules to retroactively punish him for his winnings.
submitted by tugjobterry to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

DD: Biggest publicly traded online betting company since Draft Kings. LCAis merging with Golden Nugget Online Gaming into GNOG Friday, 12-18-20. Discounted now after last week. Stop gambling on meme stocks like broke degenerates and bet on the online gambling industry like big money degenerates.

DD: Biggest publicly traded online betting company since Draft Kings. LCAis merging with Golden Nugget Online Gaming into GNOG Friday, 12-18-20. Discounted now after last week. Stop gambling on meme stocks like broke degenerates and bet on the online gambling industry like big money degenerates.
EDIT: UP 10% today 2 more days to go. Stimulus is likely on it's way so people are buying like crazy. Vaccines are releasing. Lets go.
TL;DR at the bottom for your short attention spans.
You heard of Draft Kings? Remember how much that stocked jumped up? $10 to $50 in 3 months, that's a 400% increase. Did pretty well didn't it. It's been the only publicly traded online betting company on the stock market till this week.
Landcadia Holdings II LCAis merging with Golden Nugget Online Gaming to become $GNOG on Friday 12-18-20.
The upsides on this company are huge:
  • Net Revenue of $25.9 million compared to $13.5 million during the same period in 2019, an increase of 92%
  • Gross Gaming Revenues of $28.9 million, compared to $14.9 million during the same period in 2019, an increase of 93%,
  • Operating Income of $8.2 million versus $4.2 in the third quarter of 2019, an increase of 92%.
The owner is Tilman Fertitta, billionaire businessman who owns the Golden Nugget casino and betting chain, the Houston Rockets and Landry's Inc. which is the parent company that owns the franchise rights to Bubba Gump, Joe's Crab Shack, Morton's steak house, Rainforest Cafe among 40 other popular restaurants. He also owns a variety of other properties and business ventures.
"In 2018, his net worth was estimated at $4.5 billion, placing him at No. 153 on the Forbes 400 list of the wealthiest Americans;[1] Forbes calls him the "World's Richest Restaurateur".[6] "
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tilman_Fertitta
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landry%27s,_Inc.#Properties_and_subsidiaries
The downs sides:
The only downsides I have found is that LCAwas created by Tilman, which some people find sketchy, but makes a lot of sense to me. He was looking to bring his company public and wanted extra investments to bring one of his most successful companies public.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Online betting is an ever growing industry and in my opinion Golden Nugget is the only other online gambling company worth investing in besides Draft Kings.
The global online gambling market size was valued at USD 53.7 billion in 2019 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.5% from 2020 to 2027.
Source: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/golden-nugget-online-gaming-reports-record-third-quarter-revenue-301161354.html

https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/online-gambling-market
Full Disclosure: I obviously have shares in this.
TL;DR
LCAis merging with Golden Nugget Online Betting on Friday, 12-18-20 into $GNOG. Last weeks shit fuckery dropped it down and I think it'll drop a little more on Monday, making it a good time to get in on the only other publicly traded online betting company besides Draft Kings. It's got 4 days to rally and I think it'll pop hard on merger.
This is finally a SPAC with an actually valuable company behind it, a successful billionaire owner and a huge injection of money coming. I am willing to bet that this online betting company will start to moon starting on Friday's merger vote or the following week after the ticker changes.
submitted by LillyTheElf to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

$BFT (FoleyTrasimene II), SPAC to become Paysafe

I think that this one has been under-reported somewhat but since I work in the online gaming industry, it showed up on my radar.
This SPAC has reached a deal to bring back Paysafe to the market, at a valuation of 9 billions.
What is Paysafe?
Paysafe Group has been consolidating the market for e-wallets and alternative payment methods for years and went back into private hands 3 years ago.
They regroup all the main e-wallets used for online gambling and Forex: Skrill and Neteller and also prepaid cards (to be bought in 7/11 and the like) under the Paysafe brand.
Why e-wallets matter in the online gambling market?
E-wallets and prepaid cards represent about 25% of the volume of payments in online gambling in UK, Europe, Canada and Skrill/NetellePaysafe are by far the biggest names in this field.
https://www.fisglobal.com/-/media/fisglobal/WorldPay/Docs/Miscellaneous/Gaming%20Payments%20Report%202019
Neteller and Moneybookers (as Skrill was known then) were dominating the US alternative payment methods gambling market in the US before they got pushed out in 2007. They still have high name recognition amongst the gambling crowd and web searches in the US for these brands remain high, even if they can’t process much transactions there for gambling since many states don’t have online gambling legislations yet, or very limiting ones.
E-Wallets are often the preferred payment method for gamblers since it allows to move money from one operator site to the other quickly and cheaply. They can also use it as a bankroll segregated from their main bank account/CC and on top of that, Paysafe offers loyalty benefits to users based on their transaction volumes. As such, their user retention is very good.
The prepaid card business is also a major factor for this stock attractiveness. Prepaid cards to be bought in gas stations or the like are often preferred by gamblers who want to strictly control their gambling or those who don’t have access to a CC (maybe because they gambled too much) or those that prefer cash transactions out of privacy concerns…
Why not invest in the gambling operators instead?
Operators such as Draftkings or legacy casino groups are going to make money but the regulatory environment is harsh and gambling taxes are crazy in some states and might keep going higher.
Moreover, the regulations being so fragmented, many smaller operators push in certain states and not others and the competitive environment is broad. Remember that gambling is a fungible good. There is no difference in the casino games that the operators can offer (same game studios, same rules) and aside from bonuses and the margins on sports bets, the only differentiation is in branding, which is a thin moat on a product that often leaves the users disgruntled (losers).
Payments on the other hand are not taxed for their relationship to gambling and there are far fewer players.
How does Paysafe make money?
The margins on their products are pretty high and Paysafe charges both sides of the transaction in the case of the e-wallets and the merchant side in the case of the prepaid cards.
For the use of Skrill and Neteller wallets, Paysafe charges on average 4.5% on the merchant side for deposits and a whooping 9.9% on deposits with prepaid cards… Larger merchants certainly can negotiate these rates down but this is still a healthy fee, much higher than credit card processors.
In markets where Paysafe has established domination they charge a small deposit fee to the user and a withdrawal fee.
For now, they charge no fees to the US users in a bid to grow market share surely but that will probably end some day.
Growth opportunity:
For now, the US online gambling market is still very limited. Most states have not legalized, the majority of those who have legalized only did so for sports betting and then a handful have legalized online casino gaming (where the real money is made). The opening up of the market is bound to grow as states need money and more of the world moves online.
https://www.playusa.com/us/
It is estimated that the online gaming market could reach 25 billions a year in the US in a few years time and 150 billions worldwide.
https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/online-gambling-market#:~:text=The%20North%20America%20online%20gambling,CAGR%20during%20the%20forecast%20period.
https://www.grandviewresearch.com/press-release/global-online-gambling-market
These revenues do not equal to deposited amounts, they equal net deposits (deposits minus withdrawals). The hold % of online casinos can be anywhere between 50% and 80% depending on how degenerate the market is in a given country but we can conservatively assume 60%.
This means that deposits volume in the US alone would reach about 40 billions, Europe about 50 Billions and worldwide 250 billions.
That should give Paysafe around 8-10 billions in transaction volume per year in the US alone , another 10-12 billions in Europe and conservatively, another 20 billions worldwide.
Valuation estimates:
Rough estimates are therefore revenues of about 1.5 billions per year for Paysafe group in a few years for gambling alone.
Paysafe claims 1.5 billions in revenues total projected for 2021, with only a third from gambling.
Even assuming no growth from the other verticals, this means that the total revenues of Paysafe should grow by 66% with gambling alone in the next 5 years or so.
Pysafe is investing a lot into expansion in other areas than gambling, notably video-gaming and remittance so assuming they don’t fuck it up completely, we are likely to see a 3 billions dollar in revenues in the next 5 years.
Using Paypal’s marketcap vs revenues, that would mean 50 billions in marketcap for Paysafe… Of course, Paypal is ingrained deeply in the whole of ecommerce and Paysafe is more specialized in gambling which might be shakier and herefore command a lower valuation.
The deal details are not fully known but it looks like a current valuation of 9 billions for Paysafe Group upon listing.
Based on my estimates, the marketcap could reach 50 billions in a few years time, one US market for gambling fully opens.
$BFT is trading at a 25% premium right now, therefore the estimate is 4x on investment over a few years.
Obviously you retards are not the most patient bunch but I believe the stock will jump when it morphs and so keep an eye out for the options.
submitted by According-Town-5373 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

[TRADING PSYCHOLOGY] Nobody ever takes a trade thinking it's going to be a loser

I spent several hours this past week coaching traders at my prop firm. And something caught my attention…
Every single one of these traders needed help with the same thing.
It has to do with what I call the “reverse” gambler’s fallacy. And it’s something many traders struggle with.
Today, I’ll show you how to get this common obstacle under control… and start earning more consistent returns year after year…
What Most New Traders Get Wrong
The obstacle I’m talking about is trading psychology. It’s a very broad term used to describe the emotional side of trading.
Almost all new traders believe the most important part of trading is being able to analyze markets like a pro.
On the surface, this logic makes sense. After all, if you can reliably forecast which direction to take on a trade, the money should take care of itself… right?
What these novices don’t yet understand is that something special happens the moment you commit your money to a trade…
You start feeling things.
Whether it’s fear, excitement, anxiety, or a mix of all three, no one is immune to these emotions. And they can wreak havoc on even the best planned trades.
You may be able to call the direction, the timing, and the target price to perfection… But it can all be for nothing if you are unable to stick to your trade plan.
I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen traders plan out a great trade… But then ended up somehow losing money, or not being in the market when the move they’d forecast played out.
So how do you beat your emotions to become a better, more consistent trader? It comes down to the three key parts of trading. Let me explain…
The Three-Legged Stool of Trading
I think of trading as a three-legged stool.
Your methodology/strategy for picking trades is the first leg. Your risk- and trade-management strategy is the second leg. And the third leg is your trading psychology.
In my experience, most traders focus on the first leg (strategy and methodology), and they neglect the other two legs. But the stool needs all three legs to stand on its own.
Over the years, I’ve honed my own proprietary method to develop well-rounded traders. Here’s what I’ve learned…
The first fundamental building block of a profitable trader is to establish a proven strategy/methodology you can use to identify good trades. In my experience, everything follows from this foundation.
How you manage your risk and your trades should be determined by the strategies you employ. Your trading psychology likewise will be influenced by your approach to risk and trade management.
I’ve seen other trading instructors assign arbitrary percentage values to the three legs of the trading stool. Usually these values are divided up like this: 30% to the level of importance on the analytical strategy, 30% to risk and trade management, and 40% to trading psychology.
But I don’t believe that any one leg is more important than the other. And yet I’ve found that, more often than not, traders neglect risk/trade management and psychology.
So how do you stop neglecting these two important areas to become a more well-rounded trader? That’s where our reverse gambler’s fallacy comes in…

Time to Ditch the Casino Mentality
There is one block that seems to stop traders from progressing to working on the other two legs.
That is, they don’t know how to flip the switch from thinking about their trades as individual trades in a vacuum… to thinking about them as a collection that relies on a statistical edge to net a profit.
Most traders run into this problem at some point in their careers. And if you’re frustrated with your trading right now, chances are you may be struggling with this, too.
It’s known as the casino mentality. And it’s the same mindset that amateur gamblers will take with them into Caesars Palace or the Bellagio.
It doesn’t matter if they’re seated at the blackjack table or standing over the roulette wheel. Most gamblers believe that the hand or spin they are about to play is the opportunity to hit a winner.
After all, if the roulette wheel has landed four black spins in a row, the next one surely must be red, right?
In reality, the chances of the roulette ball landing on black or red is even, at about 47.4% each. This means each spin is independent of the last.
This is also known as the gambler’s fallacy. What’s interesting is that I’ve observed a kind of reverse gambler’s fallacy from many traders…
This occurs when a trader, who does in fact have a statistically proven strategy, goes on a losing streak… And then instead of continuing to trust their strategy, they abandon it altogether.
How to Avoid the “Reverse” Gambler’s Fallacy
I saw this logical fallacy in effect this past week during one of my coaching calls.
The trader I was coaching had recently taken a technical setup that simply did not work. He was convinced he had done something wrong and wanted my help in improving his analysis.
But his analysis was great.
He didn’t do anything wrong in identifying the setup, which was textbook in nature. But the setup looked so good that, when it resulted in a loss, the trader was convinced that he was the problem… That he did something wrong.
The lesson I imparted to him, which I now want to pass on to you, is this very simple truth…
Nobody, and I mean nobody, ever takes a trade thinking it is going to be a loser. Every single trade you take will be because you thought it would make you money.
Despite this feeling of confidence, out of 100 trades, you’d be lucky to win 50% of them.
That’s why a great trader is not defined by what percentage of their trades end up as winners or losers. A great trader is defined by whether or not they are net profitable after taking 100 trades.
If you win roughly as many trades as you lose, but your winners make you 2x or 3x the amount of money you give back on your losers, you will end up with a nice profit at the end of the year.
Remember, nobody ever takes a trade thinking it is not going to work out. This is why it is absolutely crucial to abandon the idea of thinking about your trades as individual trades.
Instead, start taking a more data-driven, statistical approach to your trading. What do I mean by that?
Keeping a longer-term perspective on your trading is the key to longevity in this business. What your numbers look like over the next 100, 200, or 300 trades is far more relevant and important than losing your cool because you lost a handful of trades in a row.
Of course, to be able to make it to 300 trades, you must have a rock-solid risk management plan in place.
I don’t see gamblers at the casino take a professional approach very often. It’s rare to see someone bet small and stick to the odds on every play. It’s far more common for gamblers to be all over the place with the size of their bets.
They may start off betting small, but after winning a couple of hands of blackjack, they get overconfident and take an outsized bet. Sure enough, on that next hand they go bust while the house just happens to hit blackjack.
This is how casinos make money from gamblers. And it’s how the market parts amateur traders from their capital.
No doubt, it takes a lot of hard work and discipline to make the transition from amateur to professional. But, I promise you, the rewards make it all worthwhile. Until next time.
Regards,
submitted by ParallaxFX to Forex [link] [comments]

I want to make a casino Heist

I want my players to go through and plan a heist in a casino, the only problem is I have no clue how to set this up. I am planning on making my own map for the casino using these assets as the base: https://marketplace.roll20.net/browse/set/1806/casino-gaming-floor-pack
The target of the heist is to rescue 3 hostages spread out through the bottom floor and an undisclosed magical item hidden at the top in the owner's office. The magical item is a monocle that vastly increases the wearer's wisdom (to about 26) but after being in touch with the object for a week the wearer is corrupted and becomes evil and desiring power (this is a running trend throughout the items my party is sent to retrieve throughout their adventure each item increases a different stat).
The origin of the Casino is that it used to be a random casino in the middle of a nowhere town when a beholder decided to make the town it's home base. with the assistance of the magical monocle, he is able to cheat his way through the casino until he wins a bet with the owner in which he wins the casino.
I am undecided if the heist will take place through the whole town or just in the casino, seeing as I have limited time though probably just the casino. Sae Nijjima's Palace from Persona 5 would be a huge inspiration to the layout of the casino.
The party's level is 5 and there are only 3 members so I DO NOT want them to fight the beholder, if they get into an encounter with the beholder he agrees to play a game of chance for the item/hostages, being either a rigged game of poker where the party has to cheat in creative ways to win or a game of Russian Roulette (by a different name as Russia does not exist or with a different reason for the name like Russia being the last name of the person who invented it).
Sorry for anything that does not make sense or is written badly as this was more of a brain vomit rather than a well-written thing. if you want any more details I will answer in the comments.
Some specific questions: What should I add to make this Heist feel like a heist movie? How should I set up and do guard patrol? How should I protect the objectives? I have the backstory ready but don't know what to do for the story that unfolds while they are going through, any ideas?
submitted by legofanman06 to DMAcademy [link] [comments]

DD: Biggest publicly traded online betting company since Draft Kings. LCAis merging with Golden Nugget Online Gaming into GNOG Friday, 12-18-20. Discounted now after last week. Stop gambling on meme stocks like broke degenerates and bet on the online gambling industry like big money degenerates.

DD: Biggest publicly traded online betting company since Draft Kings. LCAis merging with Golden Nugget Online Gaming into GNOG Friday, 12-18-20. Discounted now after last week. Stop gambling on meme stocks like broke degenerates and bet on the online gambling industry like big money degenerates.
TL;DR at the bottom for your short attention spans.
You heard of Draft Kings? Remember how much that stocked jumped up? $10 to $50 in 3 months, that's a 400% increase. Did pretty well didn't it. It's been the only publicly traded online betting company on the stock market till this week.
Landcadia Holdings II LCAis merging with Golden Nugget Online Gaming to become $GNOG on Friday 12-18-20.
The upsides on this company are huge:
  • Net Revenue of $25.9 million compared to $13.5 million during the same period in 2019, an increase of 92%
  • Gross Gaming Revenues of $28.9 million, compared to $14.9 million during the same period in 2019, an increase of 93%,
  • Operating Income of $8.2 million versus $4.2 in the third quarter of 2019, an increase of 92%.
The owner is Tilman Fertitta, billionaire businessman who owns the Golden Nugget casino and betting chain, the Houston Rockets and Landry's Inc. which is the parent company that owns the franchise rights to Bubba Gump, Joe's Crab Shack, Morton's steak house, Rainforest Cafe among 40 other popular restaurants. He also owns a variety of other properties and business ventures.
"In 2018, his net worth was estimated at $4.5 billion, placing him at No. 153 on the Forbes 400 list of the wealthiest Americans;[1] Forbes calls him the "World's Richest Restaurateur".[6] "
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tilman_Fertitta
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landry%27s,_Inc.#Properties_and_subsidiaries
The downs sides:
The only downsides I have found is that LCAwas created by Tilman, which some people find sketchy, but makes a lot of sense to me. He was looking to bring his company public and wanted extra investments to bring one of his most successful companies public.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
https://preview.redd.it/80gxy9mln7561.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=cc36b549abfbea647f3dc231c6390f6910050556
Online betting is an ever growing industry and in my opinion Golden Nugget is the only other online gambling company worth investing in besides Draft Kings.
The global online gambling market size was valued at USD 53.7 billion in 2019 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.5% from 2020 to 2027.
Source: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/golden-nugget-online-gaming-reports-record-third-quarter-revenue-301161354.html
📷
https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/online-gambling-market
TL;DR
LCAis merging with Golden Nugget Online Betting on Friday, 12-18-20 into $GNOG. Last weeks shit fuckery dropped it down and I think it'll drop a little more on Monday, making it a good time to get in on the only other publicly traded online betting company besides Draft Kings. It's got 4 days to rally and I think it'll pop hard on merger.
This is finally a SPAC with an actually valuable company behind it, a successful billionaire owner and a huge injection of money coming. I am willing to bet that this online betting company will start to moon starting on Friday's merger vote or the following week after the ticker changes.
submitted by LillyTheElf to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]

DD: Biggest publicly traded online betting company since Draft Kings. $LCA is merging with Golden Nugget Online Gaming into $GNOG Friday, 12-18-20. Discounted now after last week, thinking it'll go off on merger vote date or after ticker change. Details in post.

DD: Biggest publicly traded online betting company since Draft Kings. $LCA is merging with Golden Nugget Online Gaming into $GNOG Friday, 12-18-20. Discounted now after last week, thinking it'll go off on merger vote date or after ticker change. Details in post.
Landcadia Holdings II $LCA is merging with Golden Nugget Online Gaming to become $GNOG on Friday 12-18-20.
Golden Nugget Online Betting is about to be the only other publicly traded online betting company besides Draft Kings.
The upsides on this company are huge:
  • Net Revenue of $25.9 million compared to $13.5 million during the same period in 2019, an increase of 92%
  • Gross Gaming Revenues of $28.9 million, compared to $14.9 million during the same period in 2019, an increase of 93%,
  • Operating Income of $8.2 million versus $4.2 in the third quarter of 2019, an increase of 92%.
The owner is Tilman Fertitta, billionaire businessman who owns the Golden Nugget casino and betting chain, the Houston Rockets and Landry's Inc. which is the parent company that owns the franchise rights to Bubba Gump, Joe's Crab Shack, Morton's steak house, Rainforest Cafe among 40 other popular restaurants. He also owns a variety of other properties and business ventures.
"In 2018, his net worth was estimated at $4.5 billion, placing him at No. 153 on the Forbes 400 list of the wealthiest Americans;[1] Forbes calls him the "World's Richest Restaurateur".[6] "
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tilman_Fertitta
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landry%27s,_Inc.#Properties_and_subsidiaries
The downs sides:
The only downsides I have found is that LCA was created by Tilman, which some people find sketchy, but makes a lot of sense to me. He was looking to bring his company public and wanted extra investments to bring one of his most successful companies public.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Online betting is an ever growing industry and in my opinion Golden Nugget is the only other online gambling company worth investing in besides Draft Kings.
The global online gambling market size was valued at USD 53.7 billion in 2019 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.5% from 2020 to 2027.
Source: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/golden-nugget-online-gaming-reports-record-third-quarter-revenue-301161354.html

https://preview.redd.it/auy6cwqh24561.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee46e052a3328cfab735fd86dfbb366f4f732e65
https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/online-gambling-market
TL;DR
$LCA is merging with Golden Nugget Online Betting on Friday, 12-18-20 into $GNOG. Last weeks shit fuckery dropped it down and I think it'll drop a little more on Monday, making it a good time to get in on the only other publicly traded online betting company besides Draft Kings. It's got 4 days to rally and I think it'll pop hard on merger.
This is finally a SPAC with an actually valuable company behind it, a successful billionaire owner and a huge injection of money coming. I am willing to bet that this online betting company will start to moon starting on Friday's merger vote or the following week after the ticker changes.
submitted by LillyTheElf to SPACs [link] [comments]

DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) - Deep Dive Research - Part 1

TL:DR
Hello, welcome to my first deep dive write up.
My name’s Mark and I’m an accountant with a passion for investing. About two years ago, I used to work as an auditor at a public accounting firm and have been behind the scenes at many different publicly traded and privately held companies in the U.S. My goal is to bring my unique perspective from that past experience, my current experience working in a new role at a large corporation, and my understanding of accounting to help break down some of the most exciting growth stocks on the market today.
I’m a long-term investor. I am focused on finding great companies and holding them for a long time. I’m willing to endure volatility, crazy price drops, and everything that comes with this approach as long as the facts that led me to originally invest and believe in that company have not changed. If you want to learn more about this approach. I recommend reading the book “100 Baggers” by Chris Mayer.
Introduction
I think it’s fitting that my first stock pick has to do with sports. Sports has been a part of my life since I could walk at the age of 2. First with baseball and soccer, and then later in my childhood with golf. I’ve always played American football and basketball for fun as well and have always been an avid fan of all the major sports in the US.
I started playing fantasy sports (mostly just fantasy football) about 6 years ago and have always enjoyed it. Traditionally, with fantasy football you draft a team at the beginning of the year and those are your players for the rest of the season. If you have a bad draft, oh well. You can try to improve your team with trades and free agent additions but it is tough. Leagues usually consist of 10-14 teams (each managed by an individual) and there’s obviously only one winner at the end of the season (about 4 months after the draft). This can lead to the managers of the lower performing teams losing interest as the season wanes on. I believe DraftKings’ (DK) founders saw this issue and saw an opportunity. Enter, daily fantasy sports. Now, with the DK platform you can draft a new team every week. Or if you want, every day. This allows fans of fantasy sports to engage at whichever point of the season they want and at varying financial stakes.
The Thesis Statement
For every stock pick I make, I want to provide a quick thesis statement that can serve as a reminder for why I’m buying and holding that stock for the long term. I’ll always aim to make it just a few sentences long so it can easily be remembered and internalized. This helps during times when the price may sporadically drop and you need to remember why you’re holding this position.
The thesis statement I have come up with for DK is as follows:
“DraftKings: The leader in allowing fans to engage financially with their favorite sports, teams, and players. Having money at stake makes the game a lot more interesting to watch. The era of daily fantasy sports games, online sports betting, and online betting (outside of sports), is just getting started and DK is as well positioned (or better positioned) than anyone to capitalize off of this trend.”
Notice how I said “allowing fans to engage financially” as the first sentence and not necessarily “allowing fans to gamble”. There’s a reason for that. According to US Federal Law, Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) contests have specifically been exempted from the prohibitions of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA). DK has always been, and I believe will continue to be DFS contests 1st, sports betting 2nd, and other forms of gambling/entertainment 3rd. It is noteworthy that states at an individual level can still deem DFS contests illegal if they so wish, but as of this writing (11/26/20), 43 of the 50 US States allow DFS contests and DK, accordingly, is offering DFS contests in all 43 of those US States.
I’ll try to clarify the difference between DFS contests and sports betting real quick:
DFS Contest – Pay a pre-set entry fee to enter a contest. All entry fees go towards “The Pot”. “Draft” 9 players to be on your “Team” for 1 week. Enter your “Roster” into a contest with other players (could range from 1 other person to 1,000s of people, the DK user can choose). Whichever “Roster” amasses the most points for that week out of all contestants wins. The winner will get the highest payout, and depending on the nature of the contest, other top finishers will receive smaller payouts as well.
Sports Gambling – Team A is considered a 10 point favorite to defeat Team B. This means that Team A is expected, by the professional gambling line setters, to outscore Team B by 10 points. This is known as a point spread. You can bet on the underdog or the favorite. If you bet on the favorite, they have to win by more than 10 points for you to win the bet. If you bet on the underdog, you will win the bet as long as the underdog keeps the game within less than a 10 point defeat.
These are just a couple simple examples to help you see the difference. Sports Gambling (the 2nd priority of DK) is a very lucrative market just as the DFS contests are. However, in the US, Federal Laws and regulations are a lot stricter on Sports Gambling than they are on DFS. As of this writing (11/27/20), 22 states (including the District of Columbia) out of 51 possible allow sports gambling.
DK is still in the infancy stages of getting their sports gambling business going. In the 22 states where they could potentially operate, they currently have a sports gambling offering in 11 of those states. The sports gambling business model for DK can be broken into two main offerings – mobile sports betting, and retail sports betting. Mobile sports betting means you can place a sports bet online from the comfort of your own home, while retail sports betting means you must go to a casino and place a bet with the sportsbook in person. I personally believe mobile sports betting is the real potential cash cow for DK out of the two types of sports betting offerings due to the convenience and ease of access. DK is currently working on and encouraging customers to lobby their state lawmakers to legalize sports gambling in more states.
How DK makes money
At the very least, before you invest in a company, you better understand how they make money. In Chris Mayers’ excellent book, 100 Baggers, that I mentioned above, he continually references top line revenue growth as one of the main common indicators of a possible 100 Bagger. This isn’t to tell you that any stock I pick will be a 100 Bagger just because it has great top line revenue growth, but if I am looking at a growth stock to hold for the long term, revenue growth is one of the first things I look at.
For DK, their means of making money is quite simple. I already went into detail above about DFS Contests and Sports Gambling. In DK’s latest 10-Q filing with the SEC (filed 11/13/20), revenue is broken out into two main streams: Online Gaming and Gaming Software.
Online Gaming (82% of Total Revenue for 9 months ended 9/30/20):
Online gaming is the true core business of DK and includes the aforementioned DFS Contests, Sports Gambling and additional gambling (non-sports) opportunities. DK refers to their additional gambling (non-sports) as “iGaming” or “online casino”.
For the 9 months ended 9/30/20, Online Gaming revenue totaled $239M, up 30% YoY from $184M in the same prior year period. Keep in mind, that this is an increase that happened during a COVID-19 global pandemic that delayed and shortened many professional sports seasons.
Online gaming revenue is earned in a few ways that are slightly different, but very similar overall. In order to enter a DFS contest, a customer must pay an entry fee. DFS revenue is generated from these entry fees collected, net of prize payouts and customer incentives awarded to users. In order to place a sports bet (sports gambling), a customer places a wager with a DK Sportsbook. The DK Sportsbook sets odds for each wager that builds in a theoretical margin allowing DK to profit. Sports gambling revenue is generated from wagers collected from customers, net of payouts and incentives awarded to winning customers. The last form of online gaming revenue is earned in similar fashion to a land-based casino, offering online versions of casino games such as blackjack, roulette, and slot machines.
Gaming Software (18% of Total Revenue for 9 months ended 9/30/20):
While the Online Gaming revenue stream mentioned above is a Business to Consumer (B2C) model, the Gaming Software revenue stream is a Business to Business (B2B) model. The Gaming Software side of the business was born out of the acquisition of SBTech, a company from the Isle of Man (near the UK) founded in 2007 that has 12+ years of experience providing online sports betting platforms to clients all over the world. The acquisition occurred as part of the SPAC driven IPO in April of 2020 that combined “the old DK company” with SBTech so that they now are “the new DK company” listed as DKNG on the NASDAQ. SBTech is a far more important part of the story than just being 18% of today’s revenue. The reason for this is because DK will eventually (planned mid-late 2021) be migrating all of their DFS and gambling offerings onto SBTech’s online platforms. Currently, for DFS, DK uses their own proprietary platform but that will move to SBTech with the migration. Currently, for online gambling, DK uses Kambi, the same online gambling platform that services Penn Gaming (PENN), a DK rival. But that’s enough about the software migration for now, back to the Gaming Software revenue.
The Gaming Software revenue stream for DK is essentially a continuation of SBTechs’ B2B business model. DK contracts with business customers to provide sports and casino betting software solutions. DK typically enters two different type of arrangements with B2B customers when selling the gaming software:
  1. Direct Customer Contract Revenue: In this type of transaction, the software is sold directly to a business (casino for example) that wants to use the software for their own gambling operations. This revenue is generally calculated as a percentage of the wagering revenue generated by the business customer using DK’s software and is recognized in the periods in which those wagering and related activities conclude.
  2. Reseller Arrangement Revenue: In this type of transaction, DK provides distributors with the right to resell DK’s software-as-a-service offering to their clients, using their own infrastructure. In reseller arrangements, revenue is generally calculated via a fixed monthly fee and an additional monthly fee which varies based on the number of gaming operators to whom each reseller sub-licenses DK’s software.
As mentioned above, SBTech was an international company based in the Isle of Man before being acquired by DK. Thus, the majority of their business in their first 12 years of operating independently has always been international and outside of the United States. This has helped DK, which has historically been US focused, expand it’s international reach.
A perfect example of expanding this international reach occurred recently during October (technically Q4) in which DK’s B2B technology (powered by SBTech) helped enable the launch of “PalaceBet”, a new mobile and online sportsbook offering from Peermont, a South Africa based resort and casino company. The deal was headed by DK’s new Chief International Officer, Shay Berka, who previously spent 10 years working for SBTech as CFO and General Manager. Mr. Berka took on the role of DK’s Chief International Officer upon the merger in April earlier this year. I think this deal shows that DK has integrated SBTech and it’s business very well into the larger business as a whole. They are not wasting any time using their newly acquired resources to expand their reach and bring in new sources of revenue.
This is the end of my first article about DK. My goal is to drop Part 2 later this week. The focus of Part 2 will be an in depth answer of the question – “Can we 10x from here?”
Disclosure: I am/we are long DKNG. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
submitted by Historical-Comment36 to SecurityAnalysis [link] [comments]

DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) - Deep Dive Research - Part 1

TL:DR
Hello, welcome to my first deep dive write up.
My name’s Mark and I’m an accountant with a passion for investing. About two years ago, I used to work as an auditor at a public accounting firm and have been behind the scenes at many different publicly traded and privately held companies in the U.S. My goal is to bring my unique perspective from that past experience, my current experience working in a new role at a large corporation, and my understanding of accounting to help break down some of the most exciting growth stocks on the market today.
I’m a long-term investor. I am focused on finding great companies and holding them for a long time. I’m willing to endure volatility, crazy price drops, and everything that comes with this approach as long as the facts that led me to originally invest and believe in that company have not changed. If you want to learn more about this approach. I recommend reading the book “100 Baggers” by Chris Mayer.
Introduction
I think it’s fitting that my first stock pick has to do with sports. Sports has been a part of my life since I could walk at the age of 2. First with baseball and soccer, and then later in my childhood with golf. I’ve always played American football and basketball for fun as well and have always been an avid fan of all the major sports in the US.
I started playing fantasy sports (mostly just fantasy football) about 6 years ago and have always enjoyed it. Traditionally, with fantasy football you draft a team at the beginning of the year and those are your players for the rest of the season. If you have a bad draft, oh well. You can try to improve your team with trades and free agent additions but it is tough. Leagues usually consist of 10-14 teams (each managed by an individual) and there’s obviously only one winner at the end of the season (about 4 months after the draft). This can lead to the managers of the lower performing teams losing interest as the season wanes on. I believe DraftKings’ (DK) founders saw this issue and saw an opportunity. Enter, daily fantasy sports. Now, with the DK platform you can draft a new team every week. Or if you want, every day. This allows fans of fantasy sports to engage at whichever point of the season they want and at varying financial stakes.
The Thesis Statement
For every stock pick I make, I want to provide a quick thesis statement that can serve as a reminder for why I’m buying and holding that stock for the long term. I’ll always aim to make it just a few sentences long so it can easily be remembered and internalized. This helps during times when the price may sporadically drop and you need to remember why you’re holding this position.
The thesis statement I have come up with for DK is as follows:
“DraftKings: The leader in allowing fans to engage financially with their favorite sports, teams, and players. Having money at stake makes the game a lot more interesting to watch. The era of daily fantasy sports games, online sports betting, and online betting (outside of sports), is just getting started and DK is as well positioned (or better positioned) than anyone to capitalize off of this trend.”
Notice how I said “allowing fans to engage financially” as the first sentence and not necessarily “allowing fans to gamble”. There’s a reason for that. According to US Federal Law, Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) contests have specifically been exempted from the prohibitions of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA). DK has always been, and I believe will continue to be DFS contests 1st, sports betting 2nd, and other forms of gambling/entertainment 3rd. It is noteworthy that states at an individual level can still deem DFS contests illegal if they so wish, but as of this writing (11/26/20), 43 of the 50 US States allow DFS contests and DK, accordingly, is offering DFS contests in all 43 of those US States.
I’ll try to clarify the difference between DFS contests and sports betting real quick:
DFS Contest – Pay a pre-set entry fee to enter a contest. All entry fees go towards “The Pot”. “Draft” 9 players to be on your “Team” for 1 week. Enter your “Roster” into a contest with other players (could range from 1 other person to 1,000s of people, the DK user can choose). Whichever “Roster” amasses the most points for that week out of all contestants wins. The winner will get the highest payout, and depending on the nature of the contest, other top finishers will receive smaller payouts as well.
Sports Gambling – Team A is considered a 10 point favorite to defeat Team B. This means that Team A is expected, by the professional gambling line setters, to outscore Team B by 10 points. This is known as a point spread. You can bet on the underdog or the favorite. If you bet on the favorite, they have to win by more than 10 points for you to win the bet. If you bet on the underdog, you will win the bet as long as the underdog keeps the game within less than a 10 point defeat.
These are just a couple simple examples to help you see the difference. Sports Gambling (the 2nd priority of DK) is a very lucrative market just as the DFS contests are. However, in the US, Federal Laws and regulations are a lot stricter on Sports Gambling than they are on DFS. As of this writing (11/27/20), 22 states (including the District of Columbia) out of 51 possible allow sports gambling.
DK is still in the infancy stages of getting their sports gambling business going. In the 22 states where they could potentially operate, they currently have a sports gambling offering in 11 of those states. The sports gambling business model for DK can be broken into two main offerings – mobile sports betting, and retail sports betting. Mobile sports betting means you can place a sports bet online from the comfort of your own home, while retail sports betting means you must go to a casino and place a bet with the sportsbook in person. I personally believe mobile sports betting is the real potential cash cow for DK out of the two types of sports betting offerings due to the convenience and ease of access. DK is currently working on and encouraging customers to lobby their state lawmakers to legalize sports gambling in more states.
How DK makes money
At the very least, before you invest in a company, you better understand how they make money. In Chris Mayers’ excellent book, 100 Baggers, that I mentioned above, he continually references top line revenue growth as one of the main common indicators of a possible 100 Bagger. This isn’t to tell you that any stock I pick will be a 100 Bagger just because it has great top line revenue growth, but if I am looking at a growth stock to hold for the long term, revenue growth is one of the first things I look at.
For DK, their means of making money is quite simple. I already went into detail above about DFS Contests and Sports Gambling. In DK’s latest 10-Q filing with the SEC (filed 11/13/20), revenue is broken out into two main streams: Online Gaming and Gaming Software.
Online Gaming (82% of Total Revenue for 9 months ended 9/30/20):
Online gaming is the true core business of DK and includes the aforementioned DFS Contests, Sports Gambling and additional gambling (non-sports) opportunities. DK refers to their additional gambling (non-sports) as “iGaming” or “online casino”.
For the 9 months ended 9/30/20, Online Gaming revenue totaled $239M, up 30% YoY from $184M in the same prior year period. Keep in mind, that this is an increase that happened during a COVID-19 global pandemic that delayed and shortened many professional sports seasons.
Online gaming revenue is earned in a few ways that are slightly different, but very similar overall. In order to enter a DFS contest, a customer must pay an entry fee. DFS revenue is generated from these entry fees collected, net of prize payouts and customer incentives awarded to users. In order to place a sports bet (sports gambling), a customer places a wager with a DK Sportsbook. The DK Sportsbook sets odds for each wager that builds in a theoretical margin allowing DK to profit. Sports gambling revenue is generated from wagers collected from customers, net of payouts and incentives awarded to winning customers. The last form of online gaming revenue is earned in similar fashion to a land-based casino, offering online versions of casino games such as blackjack, roulette, and slot machines.
Gaming Software (18% of Total Revenue for 9 months ended 9/30/20):
While the Online Gaming revenue stream mentioned above is a Business to Consumer (B2C) model, the Gaming Software revenue stream is a Business to Business (B2B) model. The Gaming Software side of the business was born out of the acquisition of SBTech, a company from the Isle of Man (near the UK) founded in 2007 that has 12+ years of experience providing online sports betting platforms to clients all over the world. The acquisition occurred as part of the SPAC driven IPO in April of 2020 that combined “the old DK company” with SBTech so that they now are “the new DK company” listed as DKNG on the NASDAQ. SBTech is a far more important part of the story than just being 18% of today’s revenue. The reason for this is because DK will eventually (planned mid-late 2021) be migrating all of their DFS and gambling offerings onto SBTech’s online platforms. Currently, for DFS, DK uses their own proprietary platform but that will move to SBTech with the migration. Currently, for online gambling, DK uses Kambi, the same online gambling platform that services Penn Gaming (PENN), a DK rival. But that’s enough about the software migration for now, back to the Gaming Software revenue.
The Gaming Software revenue stream for DK is essentially a continuation of SBTechs’ B2B business model. DK contracts with business customers to provide sports and casino betting software solutions. DK typically enters two different type of arrangements with B2B customers when selling the gaming software:

  1. Direct Customer Contract Revenue: In this type of transaction, the software is sold directly to a business (casino for example) that wants to use the software for their own gambling operations. This revenue is generally calculated as a percentage of the wagering revenue generated by the business customer using DK’s software and is recognized in the periods in which those wagering and related activities conclude.
  2. Reseller Arrangement Revenue: In this type of transaction, DK provides distributors with the right to resell DK’s software-as-a-service offering to their clients, using their own infrastructure. In reseller arrangements, revenue is generally calculated via a fixed monthly fee and an additional monthly fee which varies based on the number of gaming operators to whom each reseller sub-licenses DK’s software.
As mentioned above, SBTech was an international company based in the Isle of Man before being acquired by DK. Thus, the majority of their business in their first 12 years of operating independently has always been international and outside of the United States. This has helped DK, which has historically been US focused, expand it’s international reach.
A perfect example of expanding this international reach occurred recently during October (technically Q4) in which DK’s B2B technology (powered by SBTech) helped enable the launch of “PalaceBet”, a new mobile and online sportsbook offering from Peermont, a South Africa based resort and casino company. The deal was headed by DK’s new Chief International Officer, Shay Berka, who previously spent 10 years working for SBTech as CFO and General Manager. Mr. Berka took on the role of DK’s Chief International Officer upon the merger in April earlier this year. I think this deal shows that DK has integrated SBTech and it’s business very well into the larger business as a whole. They are not wasting any time using their newly acquired resources to expand their reach and bring in new sources of revenue.
This is the end of my first article about DK. My goal is to drop Part 2 later this week. The focus of Part 2 will be an in depth answer of the question – “Can we 10x from here?”
Disclosure: I am/we are long DKNG. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
submitted by Historical-Comment36 to investing [link] [comments]

Dragon Quest True Best Equipment Guide

So, I want to make a clear and concise guide for any players who recently picked up Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age and Have finally entered the Post Game or for people who have already played the game and just want to make sure they have the best gear. If I make any mistakes, please let me know!
First, lets start with the Accessories for each character: The best accessory in the game Hands Down is the Catholicon Ring. 2 For each character ensures you will not have to deal with ill effects such as sleep or confusion. This means you will need 16 gold bars, 160 perfect panacea, 32 royal rubies, and 48 Red Wood … Goodluck! You can craft this ring through the book Kings of the Rings, found in a chest in the Disciple's Trial - Cruel Crypt

Some Key books you will need for forging (a lot of weapons require these; I usually refer to these when I say forging):
Hero's Book of Basic Weapons, is found in the Tower of Lost Time.
>! A Hero's Book of Better Weapons , found in the Disciple's Trial - Eerie Valley!<
>! A Hero's Book of Brilliant Weapons, found by getting all wishes from Drustan.!<
Big Hitters of the Battlefield, found in the Luminary's Trial - Citadel Of Spite
Making Things with Metal Kings, obtainable after turning in 110 mini medals

Note: u/n00bavenger brought up a great point about armor. For a lot of characters, Exotoga and Seraph's Robe can be better than some of the armor I have listed. Its your choice but some of these can be better or worse than the armor listed below.


These will help you get a majority of the best gear. If a item is listed with no item location, presume you can get it from the above books.
First, lets start with the Hero.
Hero
Weapons: I cant really recommend anything as all are great, but dual wielding is good for damage and shield is good for defense. Your choice.
Gear:

Erik
Weapons: I would recommend daggers for their status effects, but its your choice.
Gear:

Veronica
Weapons: I would recommend Heavy Wands
Gear:

Serena
Weapons: I would recommend Wand + shield
Gear:

Sylvando
Weapons (based on charm): Primarily whatever gives you the most charm as those are the abilities you will use most
Gear

Rab
Weapons: Wands are highly recommended
Gear:
Jade
Weapons: Spears are preferred
Gear: (In the switch version, there is a gear that makes you literally invincible, so I will list the best gear and the kinda cheaty gear.)

Eight (Hendrik)
Weapons: Anything works, but I prefer Axe and shield
Gear:

Finally, For item farming, the best characters with accessories and gear are:
Erik: Accessories are Pirate King's Pendant and Bunny tail. The best armor for him is the Vest for Success
Jade: Two bunny tails and Uniforme Chic de l'Académie
Veronica: Two bunny tails and Uniforme Chic de l'Académie
Serena: Two bunny tails and Uniforme Chic de l'Académie
The Bunny Tails can be stolen/dropped by Bunicorns
The Uniforme Chic de l'Académie can be bought at the Quester's Rest in the Alter of the Starry Skies book in Tickington
The Pirate King's Pendant can be obtained through post game story events
The Vest for Success can be found through the quest Richie's Rock-Hard Roulette Challenge (Octagonia)
I really hope this guide goes appreciated. If I missed anything or I got something wrong let me know. If the spoiler text is too much, let me know and I will remove it.

Feel Free To Use This or Share This Without Credit as I Just Want to Be Helpful!

I Hope You Enjoyed This Guide!

submitted by SethDaBest to dragonquest [link] [comments]

I want to create a heist. but don't know how

I want my players to go through and plan a heist in a casino, the only problem is I have no clue how to set this up. I am planning on making my own map for the casino using these assets as the base: https://marketplace.roll20.net/browse/set/1806/casino-gaming-floor-pack
The target of the heist is to rescue 3 hostages spread out through the bottom floor and an undisclosed magical item hidden at the top in the owner's office. The magical item is a monocle that vastly increases the wearer's wisdom (to about 26) but after being in touch with the object for a week the wearer is corrupted and becomes evil and desiring power (this is a running trend throughout the items my party is sent to retrieve throughout their adventure each item increases a different stat).
The origin of the Casino is that it used to be a random casino in the middle of a nowhere town when a beholder decided to make the town it's home base. with the assistance of the magical monocle, he is able to cheat his way through the casino until he wins a bet with the owner in which he wins the casino.
I am undecided if the heist will take place through the whole town or just in the casino, seeing as I have limited time though probably just the casino. Sae Nijjima's Palace from Persona 5 would be a huge inspiration to the layout of the casino.
The party's level is 5 and there are only 3 members so I DO NOT want them to fight the beholder, if they get into an encounter with the beholder he agrees to play a game of chance for the item/hostages, being either a rigged game of poker where the party has to cheat in creative ways to win or a game of Russian Roulette (by a different name as Russia does not exist or with a different reason for the name like Russia being the last name of the person who invented it).
Sorry for anything that does not make sense or is written badly as this was more of a brain vomit rather than a well-written thing. if you want any more details I will answer in the comments.
What should I add to make this Heist feel like a heist movie? How should I set up and do guard patrol? How should I protect the objectives? I have the backstory ready but don't know what to do for the story that unfolds while they are going through, any ideas?
submitted by legofanman06 to DnD [link] [comments]

Looking for your feedback and opinions on my results in microstakes MTT's so far.

Hi there /r Poker, I've been a very casual live recreational Texas Hold'em Tournament player for a little over ten years at my small local casino. I have just under $12,000 in live tournament winnings ($11,374 if it had to be an exact figure), and after tournament buy-ins totaling $6000, I have a total net profit of $5,374, for a 47% ROI (Approximately 100 tournaments played, averaging $60 a tournament buy-in)
Since the beginning of October I have started playing online micro MTT's on Pokerstars (mainly the $0.25 45 and 90 player MTT SNG's they offer. Looking to bankroll 150-250 BI's to $1 versions of these plus the 180 player SNG's by the end of next summer) and have compiled a small sample of tournament data in that time. I would like to get any kind of thought or critique/constructive criticism on how I am doing so far for my online tournament play. I have purchased Poker Copilot, the $7 introductory course on post-flop play on upswing poker, and I'm going to be purchasing a 6 month subscription to the Upswing Lab shortly after new year's. I have a 43k hand sample obtained so far. Between these stats and what my Pokerprolabs player account information has provided me, here are my following stats and I would simply like to know if it possible to tell if I am playing well, or on a really good heater right now.
Hand Total: 43,576
Tournaments played: 617
Total Winnings: $284.89
Total Tournament cost: $147.45
Total Profit: $101.39
Average profit per tournament: $0.16
ROI: 68.74%
First Place: 19
Second Place: 28
Third Place: 13
VPiP: 21%
PFR: 15%
Agg: 48%
3-Bet: 6%
4-Bet: 15%
C-bet: 56%
Check-Raise: 7%
All-In Equity: +7200BB over 43,576 hands
All-In Equity Value: +5400BB over 43,576 hands
Poker Copilot Leak Detectors over 43,576 Hands
Pre-Flop Aggression: Everything is listed as good except Big blind as "passive" at 35%. "Raise more, call less"
Positional Awareness: All listed as "Good"
Blind Stealing: Attempt Rate: 44% (Good) BB won/100 hands from blind steal attempts: 84.94 BB won/overall: 16.55
Based on these statistics, I was thinking of starting to take shots in the $1 tournaments once I get bankrolled above $100 and/or I've played 1000 total $0.25 SNG MTT's. Would I stand a chance, or is this just looking evident of a heater run? I could easily deposit more money into my account, but I am honestly fully embracing the grind of trying to turn my $15 deposit into a proper bankroll (currently sitting at $82.53 this morning) and adhering to strict bankroll management in this regard.
submitted by AceKing-Suited to poker [link] [comments]

PSA: Thinking of buying crystals for a Nat 5?

PSA: Thinking of buying crystals for a Nat 5?
TL;DR: Nat 5s are expensive. Acquiring a random one through crystal summons can be as much as an average mortgage payment. Even then, your odds will always approach, but never reach, 100% no matter how many scrolls you open
Assuming you buy the Premium Pack (11 scrolls for 750 crystals), it costs about 68 crystals per summon. The 3,000 crystal pack costs US$100. I know there are packs that increase "value" but we are going to ignore them for now as you still typically get the same number of crystals. This nets 30 crystals per USD spent.
https://preview.redd.it/36tbbydxmny51.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=744d5db75dd4003ed90a18f29a12a6a73fe6e03f
You need 139 summons for a 50/50 shot at getting a Nat 5. That is roughly 9,477 crystals or roughly US$315.90. For barely even odds on pulling a random Nat 5.
Want a more sure bet? 598 summons are required to cross the 95% chance of 1 or more nat 5s. That is 40,733 crystals or roughly US$1,358.
So what about those packs? Monthly packs typically you get about 2 - 3 times the crystal value and the standard packs give somewhere between crystal purchase and monthly packs. Let's be as generous as possible and assume 3x the value and all on summon related items. That 95% chance will cost you ~US$453.
The average car payment in the US is $530 new, $381 used. The average mortgage payment is $1,275. So... moral of the story best case scenario, that nat 5 will cost you about the same as a monthly car payment, worst case scenario a mortgage payment. Where do you think your money is better spent?
Edit #1:
Worse yet, gatcha gaming is gambling and gambling can be an addiction. The more exposed to it you are, the easier it is to fall victim to it's mechanisms. Each pack you purchase makes the next one all the easier until you feel trapped and prone to unconscious biases like the gamblers fallacy.
Here is a fairly long but gripping Atlantic article illustrating some of the worst case gambling outcomes. It focuses more on casino gambling, but the same principles were used to design gatcha gaming. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/12/losing-it-all/505814/. If you yourself or someone close to you struggles with gambling addiction (whether gatcha gaming, state lotteries, or casinos) consider looking in to some resources to help you (them) overcome it. It can be as emotionally and financially damaging as drug addictions.
Edit #2: grammar....
Edit #3: Changed the TL;DR to better reflect the intent of the post which is not to tell people how to spend their money, but to educate on the true costs to help inform their decision.
submitted by A3thereal to summonerswar [link] [comments]

Unique Relapse - Need Support/Feedback

Hello,
I am a gambling addict. I recognized my addiction 10 years ago but didn’t acknowledge it and try to get better until 5 years ago.
After struggling to stay gamble free for 2 years, I finally was able to stop completely with support of family and friends around me. I opened up to them and in return was blessed with love and empathy.
Last week I was 15 days away from 3 years straight gamble free. For business I had to travel to a different state, and there was a casino open near my hotel that my company put me in. I wanted to go in just to see how it felt and prove I was disconnected. This was a mistake.
I sat at a slot and immediately couldn’t help myself. I convinced myself that I needed to play to prove that it wouldn’t feel the same. I know that from an outside perspective this rationalization sounds utterly foolish, but in the moment I tricked my mind to where it made sense.
I put in a $100 bill and hit the max bet for a $20 spin. Nothing. Hit it again, and the feature triggers and goes to the bonus wheel.
The wheel stops. The machine screams and the lights go haywire. I hear people around me clapping. I hit the Mega Jackpot for $163,000.
Now, I was smart enough to take the net winnings after tax and get out of there as fast as I could. Since then I have paid off every dollar of debt I had and I still have a ton of money leftover just sitting in my checking account. My credit report will now show $0 debt. Credit cards and student loans gone.
I’m still in shock. While it’s incredible to be debt free and have some real cash on hand, I feel like I didn’t deserve this and I should’ve been punished, not rewarded. I haven’t gambled since and I am currently 6 days clean after the relapse.
My grandpa, who is super supportive, told me to take it as a blessing from God. He said that I should use it as motivation to “go out a winner” and if I ever feel like gambling again to just remember I’ll never win more than I did this time.
Guys, I’m conflicted emotionally and mentally. I’m afraid of myself and how easily I relapsed after almost 3 years. I’m disappointed and afraid. I keep thinking about what could’ve happened if I didn’t get ridiculously lucky and win the jackpot and if I just kept losing. I would’ve probably played until I lost it all, as I used to until 3 years ago.
I used to say, “one day I’ll hit the jackpot and all my problems will be solved.” What sucks is I had just come to terms with how sick and delusional that sounded when I’d say it. The issue is, it actually happened now, and I’m in the best financial place I’ve ever been. I should feel on top of the world.
I know not to go back. I need to hear from others though. I need advice to help me stay strong and to help me forgive myself. Please.
submitted by XxBlackHoleSunxX to problemgambling [link] [comments]

A Brief Guide on Risk and Equity Investing

Hello all, I am a graduate student in finance with a bachelor's degree in Accounting. I wrote my thesis on how macroeconomic policy affects US equity markets (equity markets = stock market). I've spent the last 3 years studying this stuff and I'd say that I am not qualified in any sense to give sound investment advice. What that should tell you is that the stock market is an extremely complex landscape and takes years to understand. Even the best of the best lose money. With that being said, this comment is for informational purposes and not to be taken as investment advice or direction.

I originally wrote this post as a comment to another user, but thought that it may be beneficial for others to use. It's very surface level, but I think it does a good job of answering some more abstract questions that people may have about equity markets. I also think it does a good job of establishing a solid, albeit basic idea of value investing and financial analysis.
---
Understand that the last ten years does not accurately represent equity markets historically. From 1925 to 1941, if you invested in the S&P 500 index, you would have seen an average annual return of less than 5% with several of those years being negative- over the next ten years. Same goes for 1960 to 1975. (Disclaimer: Before people tear me apart saying you can't invest in the S&P 500 directly, I know. I'm using it as an example.)

We've experienced a remarkably strong bull market over the last ten years, with 20% annual returns on the S&P 500 index; however, just because we've had a strong market the last ten years does not mean it will stay that way. Consider Japan in the early 1990s. Their bull market turned into a bubble (google: financial bubble) and for the next 10 years they saw no long term growth in their equity markets. They call the 1990s in Japan, "the lost decade". So this begs the question: if there are 10, sometimes 15 year long periods where we have almost no growth, or perhaps negative returns, when, where, and why should I park my money in equities?

The first thing I think we should understand is risk. Risk is at the heart of almost all things "investing". If you go to the casino, and place $5,000 straight at the roulette table, your payout is a massive 35:1. If your bet hits, you walk away with $180,000. But statistically, your chances of winning are less than 3%. The risk is massive. Alternatively, if you buy a 3-month US treasury bill, the payout is around .1%. Meaning you would made $5 on a $5,000 investment. Why? The risk is so low. Also, what is a 3-month US treasury bill? Let me explain.

A US Treasury bill is a short-term government debt security. Here's how it works. You give the US government $5,000. They now owe you $5,000 PLUS interest at a future date. In this example, it's 3 months. The US government says, "Thank you! We will give you $5,005 back in three months!" In three months, they give you the money back. Ask yourself, if you had to guess the percentage likelihood of the US government collapsing in the next three months, what would it be? Pretty low, right? That's why the return is so low. The United States government has the power, means, right, and infrastructure to tax the wealthiest population on the planet. Also, they aren't going out of business anytime soon. Therefore, that $5 return on a $5,000 investment is essentially guaranteed. Check out this chart.

All stocks sit somewhere on this line of risk and return. But, how do we know the risk and return? Great question. How do we assess the value of an asset? An asset's worth is the sum of its future cash flows discounted to today's dollars. Read that again. An asset's worth is the sum of its future cash flows discounted to today's dollars. This is what we call "Net Present Value". Here's a video over it. Here's the NPV formula.

Let's say we have a machine that spits out one dollar every year for 5 years. What is the value of that machine assuming a 2% inflation rate every year? Let's find out! Remember our NPV formula? Let's do the math. [$1 / (1+ .02)1] + [$1 / (1+ .02)2]+ ... + [$1 / (1+ .02)5] = $4.71. In this example, inflation rate is the discount rate; however, the discount rate can be many other things. We won't go into that right now though.

So what does this mean to you? It gives you perspective. All those price movements in the stock market are the product of huge investment banks, mutual funds, and hedge funds moving money in and out of equities in massive quantities, with those decisions backed by hundreds, if not thousands of hours of research with private data that you can't access even if you had the money too.

One of the big ways they (big banks) make these decisions is by using the NPV formula with Net Income in the numerator to determine the value of the asset and a rate to discount the cash flows at (there are ways to do this, again, we won't go into it). Then they use more complex methods to assess risk. Other methods of valuation may be used, but again, this is one of the big ones.

So far, we've learned that risk and reward are positively correlated and companies are valued by their earnings. But, if companies are valued by their earnings, then why do bubbles happen? Why does the market tank sometimes? Shouldn't the market accurately reflect all companies at any given time? In theory, yes. But humans are irrational creatures, and often wrong. Therefore, stock prices are not always appropriately valued.

I am going to introduce you to two financial ratios: earnings per share (EPS) and price to earnings (P/E) ratio. NOTE: EARNINGS = NET INCOME.

Earnings per share is the net income of a company divided by it's number of outstanding shares. EPS = Net Income / Shares Outstanding. So let's say my company has a net income of $100 for the 2020 year and there are 100 shares outstanding. That would mean that my company's EPS is $1. Let's look at a real example: Apple. Click on this link. In the top left hand corner, click on sections>financial statements>consolidated statements of operations. Find EPS. Apple's EPS is 3.31. That's pretty solid. EPS puts a companies earnings in perspective with respect to the number of shareholders it has, which allows you to compare a companies earnings to its competitors, whether they be smaller or larger.

Next, the price to earnings ratio. This is easy to calculate. It is just the share price divided by the EPS. PE = Price / EPS. What this does is puts the price of the stock in perspective with respect to its earnings. Consider the example where my company had an EPS of $1. Let's say the price of my stock is $30 per share. That would mean my PE ratio is 30 (PE raio of 30 = $30/$1 EPS). For some perspective on the PE ratio- the average P/E ratio in the S&P 500 is 25-30. But they can be as high as 1,000 (like Tesla) or as low 4 or 5. What the PE ratio does is says, "Hey man, here's a metric to determine how justifiable the price of this stock is considering how much the company makes." Generally speaking, investing in companies that have low PE ratios tend to show higher returns. Why? Because there is more of an acceptable margin (historically) for the price to increase with respect to earnings.

For example: Five years ago, Apple's PE ratio was around 10. Now it's 40. This means the price went up, the earnings went down, or both. Over the last 5 years, Apple's EPS has increased. Therefore, because it's PE ratio is increasing as well, this means that it's price of the stock is increasing faster than it's earnings. Reference this chart. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, it just means that the big boys like Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, etc. think that Apple is going to do really well over the coming years as of right now. But let's say that tomorrow Apple was outed as a front for a money laundering scheme and they were going to be audited by the SEC and FBI. The price would tank. Why? Because people would be questioning if Apple would even exist as a company in the following years. They (the big boys, the government, me and you) would doubt their earnings. Rightfully so, I should add.

What I (and many others) do is look at companies and determine:

  1. Are their earnings sound? (Is it positive? If not, will it be positive? Will the company grow? Will another company come in and do whatever this company is doing, better?) This will help you determine if the return will be solid.
  2. What is the current price of the equity in relation to the earnings? (What's the PE? Is it going up? Is it going down? Why?) This will help you determine how risky is your investment.

A solid company is generally one that has a high EPS, a low PE ratio, and is expected to grow. The reason Tesla has a PE ratio of >1,000 is because people expect it to grow. Like, they expect it to be the largest electric vehicle company by net income in the next 10-20 years AND expand into other markets like solar energy and batteries. Will they be right? I guess we'll see!

This is the tip of the ice berg when it comes to investing. If you truly want to learn how to capture returns without exposing your investment to a large amount of risk, you are going to have to spend time learning how to do this. Here are some resources:


In my opinion, experience is a great teacher. Play with a small amount of money. Throw $100 at a stock you like and see what happens to it. If it drops 10% in a day, figure out why. If it goes up 10% in a day, figure out why. If it goes up steadily over the next six months, figure out why. If it doesn't do anything- figure out why.

I'd like to note again that these opinions do not constitute investment advice. They are my personal opinions and do not guarantee any sort of returns. This is how I personally approach the stock market. Investing in any asset carries risk and all investors should conduct their own due diligence and analysis before investing.

"Be fearful when others are greedy; be greedy when others are fearful."

-Warren Buffett

Cheers
submitted by LithiumTomato to investing [link] [comments]

New Era of Online Crypto Casinos

I would say that I'm relatively new to Reddit and the one thing that surprised me is the number of people that still play on Bovada, Ignition, Betonline, MyBookie, etc. Don't get me wrong, great sites for sports betting and poker, but absolutely horrendous when it comes to slots and live casino games.
Hitting 1,000x on a slot on Bovada is like a once in a lifetime achievement and the live dealer provider is... awful.
Over the past month or so, I have seen this Reddit flooded with random users promoting a bunch of shitty no-name crypto casinos that have been around for like 3 days. So I figured it was my duty, as somebody who has no ownership interests in any of these online crypto casinos, to share my thoughts regarding the ones that I believe are trustworthy. All of which is based on first-hand experience and countless hours of research.
First off, for those who aren't familiar with crypto casinos, the one thing that you need to know, as an American, is that you'll need to access these sites via a VPN. Personally, I use ExpressVPN and connect to Canada (or various other regions depending on which slot provider is available). The nice thing about ExpressVPN is that you can download the app and play on your phone. All of the casinos listed below allow VPN usage. Apparently NordVPN is pretty good too, but I cannot vouch for them personally.
Second thing, KYC is not required. Honestly haven't looked into this too much, but I can tell you from first-hand experience that KYC is not required in order to register or withdraw funds. All you have to do is confirm your email address. Some people have said you get KYC'd if you try to withdraw more than $2k, but again, I can confirm that it's not true (specifically for the casinos listed below). Just make sure that you only deposit/withdraw via crypto and you'll be fine. If you think this is sketchy, then please, continue making your credit card deposits at Bovada to random shell companies based out of China.
Also, DO NOT USE COINBASE TO TRANSFER TO AND FROM THE CASINO. They banned me. It hurt. Don't make the same mistake. I recommend using BRD as an intermediary between Coinbase and the casino. Since being banned from Coinbase, I have been using crypto.com to buy and sell crypto. Nothing but good things to say thus far.
Finally, I have wagered roughly $3.5MM in total across the sites below and have spent countless hours researching them, so I'd like to think that I somewhat know what I'm talking about. In no way am I an expert and in no way am I a high roller or a whale. Just a regular guy that enjoys gambling.
Now the common theme amongst the below casinos is that you have access to game providers such as Evolution (live games), Pragmatic, NetEnt, Thunderkick, Push, etc. that you'll never find on the casinos advertised as available to US players (such as Bovada). As I'm sure you know, Betsoft slots can get old after a while.
Just a few of my personal favorite games that I recommend you check out...
Live Games: Crazy Time, Monopoly, Evolution Blackjack and Evolution Speed Baccarat
Slots: Dead or Alive 2, Money Train 2, Lil' Devil, Sweet Bonanza and The Dog House

Site #1: Roobet.com (Best for casual gamblers)
What I like: Instant withdrawals, huge selection of slots and live games, generous rakeback system, instant bitcoin deposits (they will credit your account before receiving any confirmations-- this is really nice), every so often they'll run a 24 hour promotion where if you hit 100x on slot betting at least $1 you'll be "King Roo" (basically King of the Hill) and accumulate ~$20 per minute until you're dethroned
What I don't like: Rakeback system only allows you to collect every 24 hrs/1 week/1 month, no clarity surrounding VIP status (assuming you need to be a whale), there was one instance where I won $36k on a $40 bet playing Reactoonz and was told I can only withdraw $10k per day (this was 6 months ago and never had an issue withdrawing since), lack of sports betting
My largest withdrawal (at once): $9.9k
Deposit/Withdrawal Methods: BTC, ETH
Referral link to enable rakeback system without having to wager a shitload: https://roobet.com/?ref=hkgambler13 (you can also use code "hkgambler13")

Site #2: Stake.com (Best for medium-high rollers)
What I like: Instant withdrawals, huge selection of slots and live games, incredible VIP and rakeback system (weekly/monthly bonuses, rakeback can be claimed whenever, daily/monthly challenges to earn extra cash), active and friendly chat community, multiple crytpo deposit options where your account is credited in that currency (meaning your balance equivalent in USD will swing with the market-- could be seen as a con), enjoyable "Stake Original" games that have a higher RTP than 3rd party slots, averages ~2k users online at any given time
What I don't like: Can be overwhelming for first time players (Roobet is much more straight forward and easy to use)
My largest withdrawal: $13.2k
Deposit/Withdrawal Methods: BTC, ETH, LTC, DOGE, BCH, XRP (highly recommend-- cheap transfer fee, if any at all, and confirmed within seconds), TRX, EOS
Referral link to instantly enable 10% rakeback: https://stake.com/?c=6c2f1c60

Site #3: Gamdom.com (Best for gamers)
What I like: Instant withdrawals, huge selection of slots and live games, newly implemented rakeback system, constant "rains" in the chat (which is free money if you join in time), ability to instantly deposit and withdraw via Rust and TF2 items (could spend an hour talking about this-- generally caters to those who cannot get crypto or have to use a CC to buy crypto), averages ~1.5k users online at any given time
What I don't like: Prior to the newly implemented rakeback system rains and level-up chests were the only "rakeback", your balance is denominated in coins (1500 coins = $1 USD), browsing through their slot selection can be a pain in the ass
My largest withdrawal (at once): $7.4k
Deposit/Withdrawal Methods: BTC, ETH, BCH, LTC
Referral link to receive a free chest that could be worth up to ~$53: https://gamdom.com/chase (you can also use code "chase")

Final parting words: PLEASE DO NOT GAMBLE WITH MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE. Gambling is not a money making method and you will lose in the long run. The purpose of my post is to make those aware that other trustworthy online casinos are available for Americans that will (hopefully) make gambling online a bit more enjoyable!
submitted by GolfAndGamble to OnlineCryptoGambling [link] [comments]

What should I do (21M)

Hi, I just turned 21 so was able to begin visiting my local casino (I am a uni student). I started with $5000 in savings, and got really lucky over the past month and eventually had 17k++. However, I went back and crazily betted and chased losses on baccarat/blackjack and lost 7k of the winnings, leaving me with 10k but I am worried I have a problem. I feel horrible even though i have a net profit of 5k but losing the 7k makes me nauseous and is affecting my sleep/mood
submitted by clearingcreeps to problemgambling [link] [comments]

Looking to get feedback and constructive criticism on my player stats, always looking to improve.

Hi there /r Poker, I've been a very casual live recreational Texas Hold'em Tournament player for a little over ten years at my small local casino. I have just under $12,000 in live tournament winnings ($11,374 if it had to be an exact figure), and after tournament buy-ins totaling $6000, I have a total net profit of $5,374, for a 47% ROI (Approximately 100 tournaments played, averaging $60 a tournament buy-in)
Since the beginning of October I have started playing online micro MTT's on Pokerstars (mainly the $0.25 45 and 90 player MTT SNG's they offer. Looking to bankroll 150-250 BI's to $1 versions of these plus the 180 player SNG's by the end of next summer) and have compiled a small sample of tournament data in that time. I would like to get any kind of thought or critique/constructive criticism on how I am doing so far for my online tournament play. I have purchased Poker Copilot, the $7 introductory course on post-flop play on upswing poker, and I'm curious to know how my poker book "Mastering Small Stakes No Limit Hold'em Cash Games and Tournaments" by Johnathan Little holds up strategy wise these days. Great information in that book from what I've seen so far, but yeah. I have a 33k hand sample obtained so far. Between these stats and what my Pokerprolabs player account information has provided me, here are my following stats and I would simply like to know if it possible to tell if I am playing well, or on a really good heater right now.
Hand Total: 33,585
Tournaments played: 470
Total Winnings: $186.26
Total Tournament cost: $115.70
Total Profit: $70.56
Average profit per tournament: $0.13
ROI: 61%
First Place: 15
Second Place: 20
Third Place: 11
VPiP: 21%
PFR: 14%
Agg: 47%
3-Bet: 6%
4-Bet: 16%
C-bet: 56%
Check-Raise: 6%
All-In Equity: +4700BB over 33,585 hands
All-In Equity Value: +3400BB over 33,585 hands
Poker Copilot Leak Detectors over 33,585 Hands
Pre-Flop Aggression: Everything is listed as good except Big blind as "passive" at 35%. "Raise more, call less"
Positional Awareness: All listed as "Good"
Blind Stealing: Attempt Rate: 44% (Good) BB won/100 hands from blind steal attempts: 82.12 BB won/overall: 14.05
Pocket Pairs: Everything listed has a positive BB won/100 hands with the exception of pocket 6's at -23.13 BB/100 (Notably, my AA and KK both have +1200BB /100, is this normal?)
Suited Connectors: AK and KQ suited have +172 and +170 BB/100 respectively, everything else is basically canceling each other out. Would like to improve my JTs -75.33 BB/100.
Are these statistics Good? Are they viable, or the result of a massive heater that could be due to run out soon? Any opinions or information would be appreciated.
submitted by AceKing-Suited to poker [link] [comments]

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